Jeni Browne, Business Development Director at MFB, and David Whittaker, CEO of Keystone Property Finance, discuss how the current geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, influence the UK mortgage market and what landlords should expect in the months ahead.
Jeni and David caught up early morning on Tuesday 24th June 2025. We recognise that that the geopolitical landscape is fast moving and volatile at the moment, so some points may be slightly out of date. Here, we summarise the key points from their discussion.
Ceasefires, Oil Prices & Mortgage Rates
The recent ceasefire between the US, Iran, and Israel brought a sigh of relief to global markets. Oil prices, which had spiked amid fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil supply, have since dropped back to around $65 a barrel.
Why does this matter to landlords? Oil prices feed directly into inflation, which, in turn, influences interest rates. A spike in oil prices could have pushed inflation higher, forcing the Bank of England to keep rates elevated, or even raise them further.
SWAP Rates: A Glimmer of Positivity
There’s been a gentle downward trend in 5-year SWAP rates, now around 3.72%.
While a Base Rate cut before the end of the year is possible, perhaps in November, any significant drop in SWAP rates would likely signal deeper economic trouble. In other words, if rates fall too far, too fast, it’s probably not for good reasons.
Inflation Remains High
Despite the recent easing in global tensions, inflation remains stubbornly high. Council tax increases, rising National Insurance contributions, and increases in inflation all contribute to a cost base that’s proving difficult to bring down.
David pointed out that while inflation may not be spiralling, it’s certainly not heading back to the Bank of England’s 2% target anytime soon. For landlords, this means that the days of ultra-low mortgage rates are firmly behind us.
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Interest Rate Outlook: Manage Expectations
Some lenders and commentators have suggested that Base Rate could fall to 2.25% by the end of 2025. David, however, remains sceptical. His forecast: A Base Rate of 4% would be a reasonable outcome, with 3.75% being a best-case scenario.
The key takeaway here is to manage expectations. While we may see 1 or 2 modest cuts, the era of rock-bottom rates is over. Landlords should plan for a “new normal” where rates remain higher than we’ve been used to over the past decade.
What This Means for Landlords
If you’re a landlord with a fixed-rate mortgage expiring in the next 6–12 months, now is the time to start planning. While SWAP rates show signs of easing, the broader economic picture suggests that relief will be limited.
Find your next BTL mortgage rate here >>
It’s also worth remembering that interest rates are now the UK government’s primary tool for managing inflation. With few other levers left to pull, the Bank of England will likely keep rates higher for longer to maintain control.
Need Advice? We’re Here to Help
At MFB, we’re here to help you navigate the mortgage market in these uncertain times. Whether you’re refinancing, expanding your portfolio, or want to understand your options, our experienced brokers are ready to support you. Call us at 0345 345 6788 or get in touch here.
