Global events don’t usually hit the UK mortgage market this quickly, but the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is now feeding directly into SWAP rates, inflation expectations and lender pricing. For buy to let landlords, the last week has been unusually turbulent, with mortgage rates shifting sharply across the board.
In this update, we break down what’s happening, why it matters, and the steps landlords can take to stay protected.
Here’s your weekly MFB News update from 11th March 2026.
The Crisis and its Impact on UK Mortgage Costs
The conflict in the Middle East has caused significant disruption to global oil and gas supply chains, pushing up energy prices and feeding directly into UK inflation expectations. This shift has had an immediate impact on the capital markets, particularly SWAP rates - the foundation for pricing fixed‑rate mortgages.
Over the past week, SWAP rates have risen by around 30 basis points. More specifically:
- 2‑year SWAPs increased by 0.33% (from 3.44% to 3.77%)
- 5‑year SWAPs increased by 0.19% (from 3.67% to 3.86%)
Because SWAP rates form a core component of fixed‑rate mortgage pricing, even modest increases can trigger rapid lender repricing, which is exactly what we’ve seen in the buy to let market over the past week. Consequently, updated market predictions reflect a hiigher inflation level and delayed Bank of England rate cuts.
Lenders React: Rapid Repricing Across the Market
It’s been a busy and fast‑moving period. Lenders are increasing rates or withdrawing products entirely with little notice. Several have raised pricing by 0.15% to 0.45%, while others have temporarily pulled fixed‑rate products while they reassess market conditions.
When lenders announce an imminent rate rise, there’s often only a small window to submit applications. If the application isn’t submitted before the deadline, you risk losing access to the earlier rate, even if you were already going through the process with your broker.
Navigating lender pricing changes
Over the last few days, many landlords have acted quickly to secure available rates in line with lender deadlines.
Many lenders allow you to secure a rate valid for up to six months in advance, and most (but not all) will allow you to switch onto a lower rate before completion if a better option becomes available. It means you can secure a rate now, protect yourself if prices rise, and still benefit from any future reductions. In other words, you’re covering both bases, so there’s little advantage in holding off.
>> Search thousands of buy to let mortgage rates here
Market Forecasts & Best vs Worst Case Scenarios
With the market moving so sharply in response to global events, many landlords are understandably wondering what the next year or two might hold for mortgage rates. While no one can predict the outcome with certainty, current indicators allow us to outline three potential scenarios to help landlords plan their next steps with more clarity.
- A rapid de‑escalation (best‑case scenario)
Energy prices stabilise, inflation falls, Base Rate could return to the 3.25% region, and mortgage rates move back toward 3.5–4 - A prolonged but contained conflict (most likely scenario)
Base Rate may remain around 3.75%, keeping mortgage pricing elevated in the 4–5% range for an extended period. - A severe escalation or full energy price shock (worst case)
If oil exceeds $120 per barrel again, inflation could rise sharply, pushing Base Rate toward 4.5% and mortgage rates into the 5–6% range.
Most economists agree the UK is unlikely to return to ultra‑low mortgage rates of 1–2%. A long‑term range of 4–4.5% now appears more realistic.
What Buy to Let Landlords Can do Right Now
- Secure a rate early - Some lenders offer mortgage validity for up to six months, allowing landlords to lock in pricing now.
- Rate‑switching - Many lenders allow borrowers to move to a lower rate before completion if pricing falls.
- Review early repayment charges - For landlords on higher fixed rates post‑mini‑budget, paying an ERC to switch may be financially worthwhile.
- Plan ahead - Keeping an eye on SWAP rates, lender trends, and geopolitical developments help prevent unwelcome surprises.
Final thoughts
The Middle Eastern crisis has added new volatility to the UK mortgage landscape. Rising SWAP rates, lender repricing, and shifting forecasts mean landlords need to stay alert. Landlords have faced challenges like this before, and with the right guidance and expert support, you can secure a competitive deal and safe-guard your investments.
If you’d like tailored mortgage advice for your individual circumstances, our team is here to help.
Next Steps
Get in touch, call our experts on 0345 345 6788 or submit an enquiry here to see how we can help.
